The end of the operations of the American oil company Chevron will reduce the extraction and production of crude oil from the country, which the PDVSA state may not cover, according to experts. So what is the plan with which Caracas intends to deal with US sanctions?
While the American oil company Chevron prepares to cease operations in Venezuela, Caracas announced that “will activate” a “absolute productive independence plan” to deal with the decision of President Donald Trump to reverse concessions to Venezuelan oil.
“President Nicolás Maduro has ordered the activation of the Absolute Productive Independence Plan”, so that the hydrocarbons industry and the country's economy “follow its stable and diversified recovery,” said Vice President of the Rodriguez, in a statement, on Tuesday, in response to the sanction.
But what is the productive independence plan that the government of Maduro announces? The official did not give details.
Economist José Guerra told the Voice of America that this plan “does not go from being a generic statement.” Gilberto Morillo, former manager of Financial Planning of the Venezuelan state PDVSA, agreed: “This plan I think is not yet designed.”
“I do not see the panorama clear,” replied another source familiar with the issue that preferred to preserve anonymity for fear of reprisals.
In any case, is the state Petroleos of Venezuela (PDVSA) currently in the ability to assume in a full way and extract the 230,000 barrels of oil produced by Chevron in the country? Analysts' response is “no.”
“I couldn't. It does not have enough funds to assume the investments that are required to maintain that additional production, ”said Morillo.
“There is a lot of opacity but I think they could assume that portion gradually. Maybe in two years they could reach it, but there is the unknown of human resources to cover that challenge, ”the expert continued.
Guerra, meanwhile, clarifies that “without foreign investment” sees “very difficult that this level of production can be maintained.” And Maduro's plan could “be going from an ad.”
25 % less oil production per day and less dollars to contain the devaluation are some of the consequences that Venezuela could face after the suspension of the concessions that allow the American Chevron to pump and export Venezuelan oil.
“Are they going to produce oil? Yes, they will produce oil, but not in the amounts of 230,000 barrels that are the barrels that Chevron is producing ”daily, said Guerra.
“If there are no foreign investments of companies with experience in those fields, that Chevron had them (…) I see that this level of production can be maintained.”
Guerra considered that “there are many companies that exploit oil, many, but the big ones will not come to Venezuela, but there are another number of companies that do play the adventure of getting into those fields and then agree with PDVSA, because that crude also has to go for Asia, it can no longer go to the United States and that complicates everything.”
And if that happens “it is going to sell with discount, with very high freight and insurance cost. It is a complication of everything related to the elimination of the license, but there will always be those who associate. ”
Until April 3
The American oil company Chevron has until April 3 to cease operations in the Caribbean country, according to the license published on Tuesday by the Treasury Department.
The precise license that does not authorize the payment of any tax or royalties to the Venezuelan government or the payment of any dividend to the state Petroleos of Venezuela (PDVSA) or any entity in which it has a 50 % or more participation.
Nor does it authorize the sale of oil or derived products produced by OA through joint chevron companies for export to any jurisdiction other than the United States.
President Trump said before that the reasons for reversing the agreement are that Venezuela has not complied with “receiving irregular migrants deported to the rapid rhythm they had agreed”, and that the Maduro government did not comply with the electoral conditions for the presidential conditions of 2024, in which the opposition denounced fraud and demands the recognition of Edmundo González as elected president.
“They will not be able to harm” Venezuela
“Chevron is over a hundred years operating oil fields in Venezuela, and today, thanks to the Venezuelan extremism lobby, she has been separated from her operations in the country,” said Vice President Delcy Rodríguez in her statement.
The Venezuelan official said that the “new US government pretending to harm the Venezuelan people, is self -inflicting a damage by causing increased fuel price and affecting the legal certainty of the investments of their companies abroad, questioning the alleged and misleading economic freedom.”
“Neither in the past nor now the same failed and defeated opponents can harm our country. A great conscience and national union will continue to mark the path of economic recovery with social justice. ”
This Wednesday, Rodríguez insisted that it is “impossible to think” that the cancellation of the license is positive for Venezuela.
“Marco Rubio believes that he is doing harm to Venezuela, and Marco Rubio is an enemy of the United States, you imagine an enemy secretary of your own country,” he said in a transmission of the state channel.
At the end of February, the opposition leader María Corina Machado, described as “a huge step” the decision of President Donald Trump, to reverse these concessions, and said that Maduro “is in serious problems.”
Rodríguez accused Machado of celebrating the measure of the US government and doing “damage” to Venezuela.