If El Salvador agrees to join forces with the United States around the Republican objectives of mass deportations, in the short term the bilateral relationship can advance, according to analysts. However, the Salvadoran nation's relations with China and security may be issues of possible friction.
Both Donald Trump in the United States and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador are debuting as presidents in a second term.
Bukele has already taken the first steps to get closer to Trump, and according to analysts, the future of that relationship will depend on how long the Salvadoran nation does not oppose the US president-elect's plan on immigration.
In 2019, when Bukele became the Salvadoran president for the first time, he signed an agreement 'safe third country'in which he committed to Trump to receive asylum seekers that the US government was then rejecting from its territory.
This time, Trump has made it clear that one of his main objectives for the Central and South American region is to return millions of immigrants to their lands. Will Bukele negotiate about it?
According to historian Héctor Lindo Fuentes, professor emeritus at Fordham University in New York, the relationship between Trump and Bukele could bear fruit in the short term due to the Salvadoran government's lobbying with some of the Republican allies, including Marco Rubio, a senator who has repeatedly praised Bukele's policies and who now sounds like possible Secretary of State.
However, in the long term it could also present difficulties due to the close relationship between El Salvador and China, and the new government's intention to put an end to organized crime networks, among which the US's desire to dismantle the Mara Salvatrucha stands out.
“On the one hand we have the aggressive position of the Republicans regarding immigrants. These deportations and the mistreatment of immigrants could create uncomfortable situations for the Salvadoran government,” the historian told the Voice of America.
“In addition, cases of extradition of gang members and relations with China will continue to be a cause of friction,” added Lindo Fuentes.
In August 2019, Trump and then-Attorney General William P. Barr created the Joint Task Force Vulcanwhich ordered the Departments of Justice, State, Homeland Security, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States to coordinate a frontal and dismantling coup against the Mara Salvatrucha 13, a street gang with a presence in several countries in America. and Europe.
Then-Salvadoran prosecutor Raúl Melara worked closely with Barr, as well as investigators from El Salvador's National Civil Police and the Transnational Anti-Gang Center.
But once the Congress in El Salvador was completely renewed in 2021, Melara was dismissed in a coup of power that even destroyed the heads of the Supreme Court of Justice.
Then, efforts to dismantle the MS13 took an unexpected turn: the new judges refused to extradite the 27 founding ringleaders and leaders of the transnational gang.
Several of them later appeared in Mexico, despite the fact that they were supposedly imprisoned in El Salvador. That was the case of Elmer Canales Rivera, alias “El Crook,” founding leader of the gang's Ranfla Nacional. The same thing happened with Jorge Alexander de la Cruz, alias “Cruger”, who remained based in Mexican territory until that government handed him over to the US authorities.
“Deep down what we have is a tremendously asymmetric relationship in which El Salvador is in a very vulnerable position,” added Lindo Fuentes.
Likewise, for international relations expert Napoleón Campos, the relationship between both governments covers two dimensions: country-country, which goes beyond presidential circumstances; and the other is related to a construction made from El Salvador that seeks to demonstrate “an ideological coincidence between both.”
“Trump, although he makes this absolute criminalization of migration, distinguishes a particularity with El Salvador and Bukele, and that is that Bukele, in addition, sends leaders of the National MS-13 Ranfla outsidereleases them from the prisons of El Salvador and indirectly sends them to the United States, not extradited but released,” Campos explained to the VOA.
During his campaign, Trump disqualified the war against gangs in El Salvador and assured that insecurity in the Central American country decreased because the Salvadoran government illegally sent criminals to the United States.
It was in July 2024, during the Republican National Convention, that Trump also said that the Salvadoran president has received “great publicity” in this regard, and questioned: “There in El Salvador, homicides have decreased by 70%. Why would it be? He will make you believe that it is because he is training the assassins to be better people, but no. “He is sending his criminals away,” said the then presidential candidate.
For this reason, Campos believes that the only interest that Trump will have in strengthening ties with El Salvador will be to “sign another agreement” on immigration, possibly “much more inhuman, much more violative of international treaties.”
Jaime Rivas Castillo, a specialist in human mobility issues at the Don Bosco University in El Salvador, agrees with this position, adding that “a policy favorable to the interests of the more than 10 million irregular immigrants, the beneficiaries of TPS, should not be expected.” and DACA, asylum seekers or the thousands of migrants seeking international protection.”
“Trump has already shown the world that he is capable of separating migrant children from their parents, that he is capable of corralling people in the countries of transit and origin of migration so that they do not approach the southern border, and of blackmail the rulers of Mexico and Central America,” he told the VOA.
Bukele remains close to the Trump circle
Bukele's first approach to Trump occurred during the Republican's first administration, in which the Salvadoran sought alliances with the United States and avoided confronting the conservative and anti-immigrant policies of the Republican's first administration.
So, Bukele visited Donald Trump at the White House and called him “ally and friend.”
Also in 2019 he approached the Heritage Foundation, one of the main study centers of the most conservative sector in the United States. There the Salvadoran president called China “interference” and distanced himself from Nicaragua and Venezuela. Already in the Biden government, relations with China were strengthened.
Also, Bukele has sought alliances with tycoon Elon Musk, who gave his full support to Trump's campaign and will now become president. lead the new Department of Government Effectivenessas announced by the president-elect.
In a meeting with Bukele that occurred in September of this year, Musk said that “El Salvador has an incredible leader.” A compliment to which the Salvadoran president responded: “it is a pleasure to spend several hours talking with one of the great minds of our time.”
Furthermore, during the inauguration of Bukele's second government, one of the guests at the National Palace in San Salvador was Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr.
“It has been an honor to be with Nayib Bukele at his inauguration, supporting a leader who fights against globalism for the benefit of his people. We need more people like him; El Salvador has a bright future with him,” Trump Jr posted on his X account.
With him, a delegation of conservative leaders close to the Make America Great Again movement was also present, including Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.
Among the Latin American leaders closest to Trump, Javier Milei in Argentina stands out, who also attended Bukele's inauguration and has shown sympathy with both leaders.
One of the objectives of the Salvadoran administration since 2019 has been proximity to the American Republican wing, something that is still maintained, analysts agree.
Bukele said on November 7 that he spoke by phone with Trump, not only to congratulate him “on his resounding victory,” but also about “the importance of his election for the world.”
In your count of, Bukele said the conversation also touched on “the bullet that nearly killed him, the incredible people around him, the sometimes damaging effects of American aid funds, Soros-backed NGOs, and our shared commitment to addressing the challenges we face.” in front of”.