Democratization, economic sanctions and migration mark the complex relationship between the US and Venezuela. The outgoing government of Joe Biden paid “a high cost” to achieve a democratic transition, without success, analysts told VOA.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House, the possibility of a democratic transition in Venezuela, incessant migration and oil businesses will mark the next stage of the already complex relations between Washington and Caracas, according to experts.
The United States and Venezuela maintained friendly ties for decades on issues of all kinds, including military issues and the fight against drugs, with an emphasis on business, which included energy cooperation and the presence of oil personnel.
However, that good relationship was interrupted with the arrival to power of former socialist president Hugo Chávez in 1999, and these tensions have increased during the administration of Nicolás Maduro, with special emphasis in this last year.
Washington ignored Maduro as a legitimately elected leader in 2019, also applying economic sanctions to economic institutions and industries of the South American country and to individuals against hundreds of Chavismo officials.
The current context seems to be moving towards a new snub regarding the legitimacy of Maduro, proclaimed winner of the July presidential election, but whose opposition said it had comfortably triumphed in the vote with its candidate, Edmundo González.
Based on copies of 83% of the voting records throughout Venezuela, the United States recognized González Urrutia as “elected president,” calling on Chavismo to allow a democratic transition and cease repression against his detractors.
missed target
The Biden government “did not achieve its primary objective” in Venezuela, that is, facilitating a transition with elections that today seems to have “little probability” of occurring in the short term, diagnoses Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at the center studies and analysis The Wilson Center.
To encourage the Venezuelan government to allow fairly free elections, “the United States paid a high cost,” he says, mentioning the release of Alex Saab, a Colombian businessman accused of bribing Venezuelan officials and pointed out by North American spokesmen and the opposition as an alleged front man for Nicolás Maduro.
Gedan observes that the Biden administration modified the maximum pressure policy of his predecessor, Trump, which allowed the election to unify the Venezuelan opposition and the vote, which he considers an “electoral fraud,” to end up isolating Maduro, he indicates.
The denial of support for Maduro by “progressive” figures, such as the presidents of Brazil and Colombia, and the possible boycott by regional leaders of his swearing-in for a third term may be consequences of the election, yes, but “none of that was enough ” so that the US would help materialize redemocratization in Venezuela, he estimates.
Complex relationships
Maduro and his allies have accused the United States of plotting coups d'état and armed conspiracies against him, as well as of financially supporting his opponents, although he occasionally expresses his desire to mend bilateral relations.
This month, Maduro claimed that Biden “did not want to work seriously” with his government and said he could cooperate with Trump with his “experience” in fighting crime. The president-elect criticized in the electoral campaign that cities in Venezuela have better security rates than others in the United States, which has been refuted by experts.
The United States was one of the main parties to the political and electoral agreements signed in October 2023 between the Venezuelan ruling party and the opposition, in Barbados.
High-level US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken himself, frequently warned the Venezuelan government this year that it should honor those commitments, which, in the end, did not happen, according to Washington.
Months after the elections, the United States announced new rounds of sanctions and visa restrictions against Chavismo officials and collaborators that, in its opinion, facilitated the weakening of democracy and repression after July.
Francisco Palmieri, diplomat in charge of the Venezuela office in Colombia, highlighted this month that Maduro has a “deadline” to facilitate the transition.
It's not just migration
Laura Dib, director of the Venezuela program at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), warns that Venezuela should not be seen solely through the lens of migration and how to stop it on its way to the United States.
It is estimated that 7.7 million Venezuelans have migrated or taken refuge in other countries this century, of which 6.5 million are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Independent studies estimate that hundreds of thousands have migrated to the United States.
The challenges of Trump's second term on Venezuela involve understanding the “complex and multi-causal” causes of migration and also the “risk” that the South American country will cease to be a priority for Washington, explains Dib.
The US will also “have to deal” with the decision of whether or not to revoke the licenses of oil companies in Venezuela and impose – or not – more sectoral sanctions, he says.
This scenario, according to Dib, can also complicate the White House's relationship with governments critical of these economic strategies, such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico.
An opportunity for the next Trump administration is that it designated Marco Rubio as future Secretary of State and Christopher Landau as Undersecretary, figures who have “a close relationship with the Latin American region,” including Venezuela, he emphasizes.
This good knowledge of the continent can lead to “greater attention” on Venezuela and even negotiations that take into account democratic changes, human rights and the end of repression, says the WOLA analyst.
Other priorities
Latin America was “quite absent” from the diplomatic priority agenda of the government of outgoing President Joe Biden, although Venezuela stood out within it, according to the experienced former ambassador to the United Nations Milos Alcalay.
Washington sought “a common position” on Venezuela with its allies, such as the European Union, and expressed constant support for its democratization, he assured the VOA.
“The Biden administration has followed the Venezuelan issue, but the priorities have been focused on other regions of the world,” such as the crisis in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine, said Alcalay, former ambassador to Romania, Israel and Brazil.
In his opinion, the government of incoming President Donald Trump seems inclined to strengthen the role of the United States in the American hemisphere in terms of promoting democracy and finding ways to confront “all types of totalitarianism.”
Alcalay, who graduated as a lawyer from the Andrés Bello Catholic University and completed studies at the International Institute of Public Administration in Paris, France, believes that the key will be for Trump to reinforce US “state diplomacy.”
“It will be extremely important to maintain State diplomacy, where we not only bet on the position of the new ruling party (the Republicans), but also to maintain the support of the Democrats in the US Congress in favor of democracy, freedom and human rights” in Venezuela, he anticipated.