The designation of six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations seeks to expand legal tools to persecute these criminal groups, but experts warn about their possible limitations and side effects in the bilateral relationship with Mexico.
The decision of the United States government to designate six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTO) marks a turn in the national security policy and the fight against organized crime, according to several experts.
The measure, which includes the Sinaloa Cartel, Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel, Northeast Cartel, the new Michoacan family, Gulf Cartel and United Cartels, opens the door to new financial, legal and operational persecution strategies against these organizations.
An unprecedented designation
“For the first time, the US has included criminal organizations in the list of foreign terrorist organizations, marking a change in how transnational threats are understood,” said Tricia Bacon, a professor at American University and security specialist.
The new classification does not automatically grant military powers or allow direct actions within Mexico, but it expands the legal margin to process any person or entity that provides “material support” to these cartels, whether financial, logistics or infrastructure.
“Anyone who provides material support for cartels, either in the form of logistics, financial resources or services, can face severe sanctions, including prison,” said Lila Abed, director of the Institute of Mexico at the Wilson Center, a thought center in Washington.
In addition, the designation has spread beyond the United States. The same day, the Canada government included five of these cartels in its list of terrorist entities, which implies the freezing of assets and the strengthening of legal tools against these organizations.
The Dilemma of Mexico-Eeuu Cooperation
Although the measure has been well received in Washington and Ottawa, in Mexico it has generated controversy and concern about its impact on bilateral cooperation.
“This designation ignores how the fentanyl market really works. It is not a problem only from Mexico, but a transnational system in which actors from both countries participate,” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a researcher at the Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California.
The researcher stressed that the narrative that Mexican cartels are “deliberately poisoning Americans” is an extreme simplification. According to data from the Department of Justice, 86 % of people convicted of fentanyl traffic in the US are US citizens.
For Craig Deare, professor at the National University of Defense of the United States, the designation is a logical step in the fight against organized crime, but its effectiveness will depend on the political will in both countries.
“If there is no real political will in Mexico and the US to fight these networks effectively, the designation of cartels as terrorists will simply be symbolic,” he warned.
In that line, he also questioned the security strategy of the previous Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador: “The policy of 'hugs, no bullets' has resulted in more homicides and more disappearances, without achieving containing the criminal groups.”
Canada hardens its position
As mentioned above, the Canada government, which has also seen the impact of cartels in its territory, decided to follow the US example. Christian Leuprecht, professor at the Real Military School of Canada, explained that the cartels have transferred part of their distribution and production operations to Canadian territory.
“One of the main effects of the designation is that it allows the financial authorities of Canada to block funds associated with these organizations, making it difficult,” Leuprecht said.
However, he warned that the measure could remain in the symbolic if it is not accompanied by an effective application strategy.
“The measures announced by the Canadian government lack real resources to be effective. Without a coordinated strategy with the US and Mexico, this designation is unlikely to have real impact,” he concluded.
Impact on the financial sector
One of the sectors most affected by the designation will be the financial. Narciso Campos Cuevas, partner of the legal firm White & Case LLP, predicted that the measure generates legal uncertainty for banks and companies.
“The Mexican financial system complies with the highest international standards in money laundering prevention, but this designation introduces legal risks and regulatory conflicts,” explained the expert.
In that sense, he warned that one of the risks is for banks to reduce or limit services in certain regions of Mexico for fear of US and Canada sanctions, which could push more money to the black market.
“The risk is that banks begin to withdraw financial services in certain regions of Mexico for fear of legal reprisals, which could push more money to the black market,” he stressed.
In addition, he warned about possible jurisdiction conflicts, since Mexican banks could be forced to comply with foreign regulations that could collide with local laws.
What follows now?
While the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations allows the US and Canada hardening their fight against these organizations, experts agree that it is not a magical solution.
For Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a key problem is that this strategy diverts attention from the drug use crisis in the US.
“We are seeing a setback towards a unilateral approach in which the US dictates the rules without recognizing their own responsibility in the opioid crisis,” he said.
For his part, Craig Deare alluded to the fact that the great challenge is not only drug trafficking, but also corruption between the two countries.
“If corruption is not fought in Mexico and the US, any measure will be insufficient,” he warned.
About that, Tricia Bacon recalled that these types of measures have failed in the past when they have not been accompanied by effective security policies.
“The problem with this measure is that it does not attack the root of the problem: the drug market is still extremely lucrative and, if certain cartels weaken, others will take their place,” he concluded.
In this new scenario, the great unknown, as experts point out, is whether the designation of cartels as FTOS will have a real impact on the fight against organized crime, or if it will only be another chapter in the long war against drug trafficking.