Survey reveals skepticism about national election results in the US, especially among Republicans

FILE - A person votes on the first day of early voting in the general election, October 21, 2024, in Miami.

Republicans in the United States show a lower overall level of confidence in the effective counting of votes in this election than Democrats, according to a new survey.

Deep partisan divisions in the United States extend to confidence in vote counts for this year's elections, as a new poll reveals that Republicans are much more skeptical than Democrats about the accuracy of the count.

Voters generally show more distrust of nationwide voting results compared to recounts conducted by their own local election offices, according to the survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About half of registered Republican voters are “very” or “fairly” confident that votes will be counted accurately by their local election officials, and about 4 in 10 say the same about vote counting in their state, but only about a quarter have at least “a fair amount” of confidence in the national count.

However, the general level of confidence of Republican voters in all three sections is lower than that registered among Democratic voters. About three-quarters of Democrats say they are at least “fairly” confident that votes will be counted accurately across the country, in their state or by their local election officials.

This year's election marks the first presidential race since former President Donald Trump began a campaign of lies about a stolen election in 2020a narrative that has undermined public confidence in the election results among a wide swath of conservative voters, despite there being no evidence of widespread fraud.

Election experts have warned that Trump may be laying the groundwork to once again challenge the election if he loses.

David Farrington, a 78-year-old conservative from Fort Worth, Texas, said he distrusts mail-in ballots and drop boxes, both common targets of claims of voter fraud and election conspiracies that attempt to sow distrust in election results.

“It's not the vote count that worries me,” Farrington said. “I have full faith in all the precincts and their ability to count the ballots that are there. But the ballots… we don't know if they are legitimate or not.”

By contrast, Ruth Edwards, a 28-year-old kindergarten teacher from Tampa, Florida, said she has “never seen evidence that the election is rigged.”

“It's just people who are upset that their candidate lost who are now claiming it's rigged without any evidence,” said Edwards, a Democrat. “It's ridiculous.”

According to the survey, voters overall are more likely to believe that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by their local election officials or in their state than at the national level.

About 6 in 10 voters are “very” or “fairly” confident that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by their local election officials or in their state, while about half say this about votes counted. at the national level.

About a quarter in each case have “a moderate amount” of trust. About 3 in 10 say they have “only a little” or no confidence in the nationwide count, while fewer say the same about the count in their state or by local officials.

Drew Inman, a 31-year-old Republican who works as a law enforcement officer in New Jersey, said he is skeptical that votes will be counted accurately at all levels, but especially in counties outside his own.

“I'm definitely more confident in my vote being counted at the local level than the vote count at the national level,” he said. “…When it is a matter at the national level, there are many more people involved and that can generate corruption.”

Although ballots may include candidates for federal offices such as president or Congress, the United States does not hold national elections like other countries. All elections are conducted by states and administered by local election offices in thousands of municipalities, cities and counties.

Election officials have acknowledged that many skeptical voters tend to point fingers at other jurisdictions with false claims of fraud. Some groups have tried to counter this perception by emphasizing that elections in all states are held at the local level.

“What's difficult is that when we have national elections, a lot of times people may sue election professionals from another state, and that's not helpful,” said Tammy Patrick, a former elections official who now works at the National Association of Election Officials. .

Older voters have more faith in the vote count at all levels than younger voters, including the recount by local election officials. About half of voters ages 18 to 29 are at least “fairly” confident that votes will be counted accurately in their state or by their local election officials, compared to about 7 in 10 voters in their 60s. or more.

However, the gap is smaller in the national vote count: About 4 in 10 voters ages 18 to 29 are at least “fairly” confident, compared with about half of voters ages 60 or further.

Bill Sanchez, a 29-year-old criminal defense attorney from Monroe County, Pennsylvania, said older voters have been watching and participating in the election process longer, giving them more time to build trust.

“Younger voters have less experience voting and have spent much of their lives surrounded by this type of misinformation that we are seeing more and more,” Sanchez said. “…It just sets the stage for younger voters to be more distrustful.”

About 6 in 10 Republicans say ineligible people voting is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared with 2 in 10 Democrats.

Democrats and Republicans differ more sharply on whether mail-in ballots returned through the US Postal Service or a drop box will be counted accurately. About 6 in 10 Democrats are “extremely” or “very confident” that mail-in ballots returned by these methods will be counted accurately, compared to about 1 in 10 Republicans.

Democrats, meanwhile, are much more concerned about voter suppression than Republicans. About half of Democrats say voter suppression is a major problem, compared to about a third of Republicans.

And about 4 in 10 voters are concerned about other countries manipulating US voting systems or election results, which represents a slight decrease since the last time the question was asked in February 2020. This is a concern at least a little more to independent voters than to Democrats or Republicans. Republicans.

Sanchez, the Pennsylvania lawyer, said he is more concerned about voter suppression than widespread fraud or incorrect counting of ballots and called for expanding early voting and mail-in ballots to “make voting as accessible as possible.” possible”.

He is also concerned about the possibility that false claims of voter fraud could incite violence and unrest, and said he hopes election officials' attempts to inform voters before the election will help.

“There is a lot of misinformation and disinformation about election security from bad faith actors trying to generate distrust and take advantage of the fact that people don't always understand everything about the process,” Sánchez said. “And when we don't understand things, we end up fearing them.”