Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet on Friday with President Donald Trump in the White House, on a visit focused on strengthening the alliance with the United States.
When Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba meets with US President Donald Trump in the White House on Friday, his goal, according to Japanese officials, will be clear: to reaffirm the alliance between the United States and Japan and build a solid relationship with Trump.
But many in Tokyo see the goal of Ihiba as even simpler: avoiding a diplomatic disaster with a newly re -elected Trump, whose foreign policy of “United States first” has returned more intensity than during its first mandate.
Just three weeks after taking office, Trump has increased pressure on American allies and partners, often unpredictable.
He has threatened tariffs to Mexico and Canada, while raising the possibility of military action against cartels and suggested that Canada becomes the number 51.
He has suggested Greenland's confiscation to Denmark, another NATO member, and warned Panama that if Chinese influence does not stop, the United States could by force recover the control of the Panama Canal
The events have baffled many in Tokyo, which depends on the US nuclear umbrella and has long been aligned with the concept of an international order based on rules and led by the United States.
“If you look at the Japanese media or listen to what the Japanese say, they only expect Ihiba The University of International Studies of Kanda.
Emulating Abe?
Until now, Japan has fought from Trump's criticisms in his second term. Last week, announcing his meeting with Ihiba, Trump declared: “I like Japan”, citing his friendship with Shinzo Abe, the late country minister.
Abe, who led Japan during almost the entire Trump's first mandate, carefully cultivated the relationship through personal diplomacy, often playing golf with Trump. Many Japanese commentators expect Ihiba to adopt a similar approach to maintain fluid relationships with Trump.
But that can be difficult. Unlike ABE, Istiba leads an unstable minority government and faces the possibility that its party loses its majority in the upper house in crucial elections at the end of this year.
Analysts also say that Istiba's less charismatic personality can make it difficult to form a personal link with Trump.
“It does not have the assertive and vignette communication style that Trump seems to appreciate,” said Philip Turner, a high -ranking New Zealand Ddiplomatic who now resides in Tokyo. “If the adulation is the solution, then ishiba is probably not very good in that.”
Is it better to remain silent?
The situation is so volatile that some in Japan wonder if Istiba should meet with Trump at this time. Instead of walking towards danger, they wonder, why not try to stay out of Trump's radar during as long as possible?
But a silent approach may not work either, said Miel Nakabayashi, a Japanese ex -reader. “There are those who say: we don't have to wake up the sleeping baby ', but this time ishiba may have to do it,” said Nakabayashi, a professor at Waseda University of Tokyo.
If Trump ends up threatening Japan with tariffs, Nakabayashi said that it will be better for Ishiba to have established a personal relationship with him in advance to manage the crisis.
“You have to run a risk if you want to have a better relationship with Mr. Trump,” he added.
To avoid possible pressures, analysts say that ishiba can highlight the role of Japan as the largest foreign investor in the United States. You may also want to raise economic issues such as the attempt to acquire US Steel by Nippon Steel, which was blocked by the administration of former president Joe Biden.
But some analysts predict that Ishiba can moderate their ambitions, simply aiming to pave the way for a Trump visit to Japan, where officials would try to demonstrate first -hand the importance of the alliance.
Hall said that approach can succeed, even if it is only because “Trump seems to have a lot to do at this time and Japan is a kind of reliable partner that does not alter things.”
“But we will have to do. We cannot really predict how the United States will act at this time, ”he added. “We are at a level of uncertainty that Japan had never experienced before.”