Panama is getting ready to receive the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, amid tension after President Trump's statements about resuming the Panama Canal. The tour will extend through Central America where issues such as drug trafficking and immigration prevail. Analysts see efforts to smooth out rough edges.
For the first time in a US administration, the State Department's policy begins in Latin America, with the visit next week of Secretary Marco Rubio, of Hispanic descent, representing Washington.
The tour to Panama and other Central American countries is seen by analysts as an effort by the head of US diplomacy to soften the harshness with which the Trump administration begins, the Central American country and its neighbors.
President Donald Trump said at his inauguration that “we are going to recover” the interoceanic canal, after explaining in his inaugural speech that it was “foolishly” handed over to the Central American country, which immediately sparked a wave of responses from Panama and formal complaints to the United Nations (UN).
In Washington, analyst Michael Shifter, an expert on Latin America and professor of political science at Georgetown University, told the Voice of America that there is no doubt that Secretary Rubio's first trip to the region responds to “seeking a negotiation with the Panamanian government to calm the waters,” and that at the table they could address issues such as tariffs and limit China's influence on imports. of the channel.
“No one expected that Panama was going to be the destination of Marco Rubio's first trip as Secretary of State. But President Trump's aggressive rhetoric and threats to regain control of the canal have raised the issue and generated a strong reaction in Panama, a good ally of the United States,” he said, so the visit cannot be seen far from that perspective. .
From El Salvador, a country that Secretary Rubio will also visit during his visit to the region, analyst Napoleón Campos, an expert in Central American integration, commented to VOA that the arrival of Secretary Rubio focuses on the contradictions with which Trump's administration towards Central America begins.
In his first term, the Republican president opted for cooperation with the region to stop irregular immigrationbut as he begins his second alternate term, the Panamanian issue has come to the fore and migration continues to be a critical point for that country and the rest of Central America, issues with which Secretary Rubio will have to battle.
“As a whole, the Secretary of State's visit is marked by the contradictions of the second Trump administration in both domestic and foreign policy,” Campos explained.
And he added that the “threat” to recover the Panama Canal, announced before coming to office and reaffirmed “in his own inauguration speech on January 20,” clearly shows a clear challenge to the UN Charter and “ a danger of breach of peace in the region, since the Torrijos-Carter Treaties They were incorporated into International Law,” he said.
Shifter added that Rubio's visit will end up showing the “effectiveness and responsibility” with which Panama has managed the canal since 1999 when it became its complete domain.
In addition, Secretary Rubio arrives in a country that is quite unified on the issue, since President José Raúl Mulino has moved pieces quite quickly and “called on former presidents and the country's leaders to forge a united position,” he said.
With that in view, analyst Michael Shifter predicted that in the coming days, as Rubio's tour passes, “the result of the trip could make more visible and public what Panama is already doing in its management of the canal.”
The Chinese shadow in Central America
For the Central American development expert, Manuel Orozco, at the Inter-American Dialogue analysis center in Washington, Rubio's tour of Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador and the Dominican Republic, after Panama, also reflects “the priorities of the foreign policy of the Trump administration towards the hemisphere”, where migration continues in first position, but we cannot forget China in a more open angle.
“It is not clear what the real goal is,” said Orozco, whether to deal with everything that China also “represents in the region, geopolitically, commercially and in investment,” he explained to the VOA.
So between the lines he sees a visit marked by several aspects that could even include “addressing the consequences of the abuse of the 'liberal world order' by dictatorships, organized crime,” among other shortcomings in the region, he said.
“The message is clear: let regional partners know that containing migration is a priority, and expect the countries' cooperation. Within the topic is China's pernicious influence in the region and how to contain it. I believe that the common message will be about migration and China, although the separate topics of conversation will address the specific circumstances of each country,” he said.
Clash of the Titans
The Panamanian lawyer, Alonso Illueca, an expert in International Relations, told the VOA that although there is no complete clarity about the objectives of Secretary Rubio's visit, it arrives in the midst of “uncertainty” due to what he considers “threats against the territorial integrity by one of Panama's oldest allies.”
But he considered that the visit will help clear up doubts among the Panamanian people about the real intentions expressed by President Trump to “recover” the canal.
Although Panamanians will closely follow another event in Washington, he said, on January 28 the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation of the US Senate will hold a hearing on “Tariffs and foreign influence: examining the Panama Canal and its impact on US trade and national security”, which will be very decisive.
However, for Illueca it is very clear that the “clash” between the US and Panama over the canal issue must be framed within a “military order” geopolitical conflict with China, where the Central American country and its neighbors enter the game board. when international law is being replaced by the “politics of forces.”
“The main mistake that countries that believe in the international order, countries that believe in international law, make is to disqualify President Trump as an irrational actor, but he is very rational, currently with his threats of tariffs, sanctions and even not rule out the use of force. “He is looking for a strategic objective, not only against Panama, but also against Greenland,” he added.
And he said that in his country there is no strategic thinking on the issue, including the relationship that the country has followed with China, and he gives as an example that it has not done the work to make China adhere to the “Neutrality Treaty”being the only country on the United Nations Security Council that has not signed it, 40 nations are part of the agreement.
China said “it has recognized the neutrality regime very between the lines” in press conferences and joint statements since the presidency of President Juan Carlos Varela (2014 – 2017) who established diplomatic relations with China “but formally there is nothing.”
He added that the United States has had its sights set on Panama for some time due to Chinese influence with two important entry and exit ports of the canal, whose first concession arose in 1997, under some precepts and an international context different from 2020 when another was made. second concession for another 25 years.
“The previous administration of President Laurentino Cortizo (2019 – 2024) decided to renew the Panama concession for another 25 years and there were no discussions about China's violation of a treaty signed with the United Kingdom” after it handed over Hong Kong under some agreements.
State Department sees broad agenda
When confirming Secretary Rubio's tour of Panama and other countries in the region, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that the tour of Central America highlights the priority with which the new Trump administration approaches Latin America.
Thus, Rubio's visit to the continent – on his first trip abroad – shows that the US is not facing an isolationist policy but “the opposite,” he said, and that Trump's administration “is giving priority to the region because it is where we live.” , and that contrary to other administrations “we will not continue ignoring the region.”
For American diplomacy, Secretary Rubio's first trip in his second week of assuming the reins of the State Department “is an example of the seriousness with which he takes it, of what it will mean with regard to his programs.” and how it relates to his commitment to this nation, to addressing the issues that matter to him and, without a doubt, the issues on Trump's agenda,” Bruce explained to the press.